A Decisive Election in May 2025
All eyes are on Poland’s upcoming presidential election, scheduled for May 18, 2025, with a likely runoff on June 1. This vote could determine whether the country continues moving away from the far-right politics of the past decade or finds itself mired once again in institutional gridlock. The stakes are high: outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a staunch ally of the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, retains veto power, blocking key reforms from the new government. A win for a Civic Platform-aligned candidate would unlock stalled legislation and enable deeper democratic renewal.
This election is also a litmus test for Poland’s resistance to authoritarian resurgence. With cyberattacks targeting the Civic Platform party in April—believed to be foreign interference from Russia or Belarus—the democratic process itself is under pressure. The outcome will shape not only domestic policy but also Poland’s role in the European Union, where it currently holds the rotating presidency.
The Fall of PiS and the Rise of a Pro-EU Government
Poland took a decisive step away from far-right governance in late 2023, marking the end of eight years under the nationalist PiS party. Donald Tusk’s pro-European coalition secured a parliamentary victory, signaling a collective desire for democratic renewal and a return to EU-aligned values.
The October 2023 elections delivered a sharp blow to PiS, which had long used populist rhetoric to consolidate power. Their defeat came as voters rejected authoritarianism, judicial overreach, and controversial far-right figures like Robert Bąkiewicz.
How Poland Got Here: The PiS Playbook
PiS came to power in 2015, positioning itself as a party of traditional values, economic justice, and national sovereignty. Over the years, it fused cultural conservatism, economic populism, and Euroskepticism. Welfare programs helped win over rural and working-class voters, while the party aligned closely with the Catholic Church and ramped up anti-LGBTQ+ and anti-immigrant rhetoric.
Institutionally, PiS overhauled the judiciary, brought public media under state control, and restricted civil liberties. These moves eroded democratic checks and balances and provoked international criticism, particularly from EU institutions.
Key Policy Shifts Under Tusk: Return To Democratic Norms
Media and Judicial Reform
One of the new government’s first actions was to depoliticize public media and begin restoring judicial independence—essential steps in rebuilding democratic norms.
Migration and Labor Policy
In early 2025, reforms simplified employment pathways for foreign workers and enforced tighter rules for employers, striking a balance between modernization and oversight.
Reproductive and LGBTQ+ Rights
Tusk’s coalition is more liberal than its predecessor, but efforts to expand abortion rights failed in 2024 due to internal splits—revealing just how entrenched conservative norms remain.
Lessons for the United States
Poland’s transformation offers urgent and sobering lessons for the United States, especially given the alarming trajectory of the second Trump administration:
- Populism exploits institutional vulnerabilities. Just as PiS dismantled judicial independence and captured state media, Trump has returned to office with a clear agenda to dismantle the very institutions that uphold American democracy. Since January 2025, he has issued sweeping executive orders to centralize power in the executive branch, purged federal agencies of career civil servants, and pushed for loyalty pledges among public servants. These authoritarian tactics are not subtle—they represent an overt attack on the rule of law and the checks and balances that define our democracy.
- Economic inequity breeds extremism. PiS capitalized on the frustrations of economically marginalized voters—and Trump is doing the same. His administration’s economic policies, including tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, are wrapped in nationalist rhetoric that blames immigrants and global institutions for economic pain. This deliberate misdirection allows wealth inequality to deepen while scapegoating vulnerable communities and fueling resentment. If the U.S. fails to address structural inequities, it leaves the door wide open to demagogues.
- Culture wars are tools of authoritarianism. PiS weaponized identity politics to divide the public—and Trump has turned this tactic into a governing philosophy. Since his return, he has escalated attacks on LGBTQ+ rights, reproductive freedom, and racial justice initiatives. His administration has slashed protections, funded extremist groups, and used federal power to intimidate dissent. These culture wars are not fringe—they are a strategic assault on pluralism and civil liberties designed to energize a base while dismantling social progress.
- Democracy is not self-sustaining—it requires constant defense. Poland’s citizens stood up against creeping authoritarianism through sustained civic action and coalition-building. In the U.S., the 2024 election showed that Americans are still willing to engage—but we must recognize that participation cannot end at the ballot box. Every local election, protest, public comment, and act of solidarity matters. Trump’s second term is a stress test for our democracy—and the response must be sustained resistance and unwavering defense of democratic norms.
A Case Study In Democratic Resilience
Poland’s rejection of far-right rule is a critical moment for Europe—and a case study in democratic resilience. The upcoming presidential election could either cement the country’s political reset or pull it back into institutional stalemate. For Poland and other democracies facing authoritarian threats, the path forward depends not just on leaders, but on citizens choosing democracy again and again.
